One thing about getting older is you get to see history repeat itself.
For almost 2 years I started sounding the alarm that “Winter” was coming to the real estate market. I was laughed at, heckled, dismissed and told that would never happen because this was “Naples ya know!” Florida, and maybe Naples even more has enjoyed a 3% increase in migration due to artificial conditions of the Chinese Virus (Covid) pandemic. Not the first time we’ve seen that. But we ( the Informed) knew it was not sustainable.
Now, in no small part to Hurricane Ian, unbelievable Home Insurance costs and just general Inflation, we do have a very substantial “exodus” out of Florida going on right now. Inventory levels are climbing fast, sellers are dropping list prices more, and many of those NOT in the market to sell are now feeling the pain of increased ownership costs, rental rates dropping, wages creeping back down. Default rates are and WILL climb further. So, I find myself in the unique position of feeling like this is 2005 / 2006 all over again. Maybe the totality of the reasons are different, but human reaction never is. The cycle IS the cycle. Predictable to a strong degree because we know how the Fed works and how people react to implemented policies. The result is almost always the SAME! In my next piece, I will discuss what to expect and WHY that is a great thing
